Russia continues an active hybrid war against Ukraine and its allies in Europe, the United States, and globally. The obvious impasse that the Kremlin has reached on the front against Ukraine and the inability to complete the task of destroying the Ukrainian state and nation are shifting Moscow’s efforts into the sphere of information and psychological operations, propaganda campaigns, and ideological sabotage, which have been used for many decades by Soviet/Russian special services to “soften” democratic societies, provoking internal conflicts, division along ethnic, class, religious or other grounds with one goal – to weaken the enemy and destroy it.
That “axis of evil”, which has already clearly formed in the confrontation with the conditional West, namely Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, has moved on to active destructive steps that threaten to turn the Kremlin’s already well-known tactics of “chaotizing the world” and “multiplying conflicts” into the strategy for a global war to reformat the world order.
Based on this, it is Ukraine and its allies and partners that are Russia’s main target. Russia’s success in Ukraine will mean the defeat of the EU, NATO, and the very idea of a democratic world, which is now opposed to the “axis of evil.” This means that dictatorial regimes will have a chance to shape the global agenda and determine geopolitical, legal, and economic prospects for the development of human civilization.
In this regard, the constant emphasis by Russian propaganda on the topic of Polish-Ukrainian relations is symptomatic. Especially with the beginning of large-scale aggression against Ukraine, the destruction of Polish-Ukrainian unity received priority among other areas of Russia’s hybrid destructive actions against the West.
Russia has traditionally tried to influence Polish and Ukrainian societies with the aim of inciting hatred and mistrust between the two nations. The polarization of both Poles and Ukrainians occurs through the introduction of information structures that are important for Ukraine and Poland: refugees from Ukraine and their integration into Polish society, the politics of memory, economic competition in domestic and foreign markets (which has become a separate area of the election campaign in Poland and was actively used by Russia to incite the Polish-Ukrainian “grain crisis”).
The Kremlin’s propaganda efforts, in particular, focus on the following aspects:
– Discrediting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the “Polish trace.” For example, messages were circulated on social media about “Pole Mieczysław Mazur,” who had allegedly escaped from a Ukrainian military unit and is “accused of a series of criminal offenses, including abuse of minors.” The fact check showed that this is a typical lie of Russian propaganda, aimed at inciting anti-Polish sentiments in Ukraine.
– Spreading the thesis that the West is tired of Ukraine and has already agreed to its “division” with Russia. Publications of various versions of this made-up story constantly appear in the media landscape. One of the latest examples is the dissemination of a publication about “the readiness to divide Ukraine” in one of the little-known Arab periodicals with a corresponding “map” where Ukrainian regions are “occupied” by their neighbors, in particular, Poland. It turned out that it was pure fiction, which was distributed in the Arab segment of the Internet with subsequent introduction into the English-speaking, Russian-speaking, and Ukrainian-speaking segment of the media landscape. Russian resources spread a similar lie online, claiming that the NATO exercise “Steadfast Defender-2024” will work out a “plan for the occupation of Ukraine.” The fake messages said that supposedly after “Russian troops approach the Dnipro,” NATO troops will begin a “peacekeeping operation in Ukraine.” Poland and Romania will “enter Western Ukraine” to “take back their regions.” It is noteworthy that Romania began to be actively mentioned in Russian fake news precisely after it started more intensively support Ukraine in countering Russian aggression.
– The assertion that the conflict between Presidents Zelenskyy and Duda is escalating, which could lead to an interstate crisis, the cessation of assistance from Poland, and the expulsion of Ukrainian refugees with all the ensuing consequences. In particular, Russian propaganda spread a lie that President Zelenskyy allegedly put forward an ultimatum to Poland: if Warsaw does not lift the embargo on Ukrainian grain, then “hundreds of thousands of well-armed refugees from Ukraine will organize Maidans in all Polish cities.” And although this is an outright Russian lie, however, it could organically fit into the heated information field against the backdrop of the Ukrainian-Polish “grain” contradictions. Just like another fake story – the fabricated cover of the German satirical magazine Eulenspiegel, which depicted President Zelenskyy “offended” by President Duda. At the same time, Duda says, “It is clear that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed.” The fact check showed that the Eulenspiegel magazine was not published with such a cover, and the publications in propaganda networks were pure fakes. Similarly, another fake news has perfected – this time about the fact that Polish President Andrzej Duda was included in the Peacemaker (“Myrotvorets”) database. As the authors of the fake story claimed, Duda was included in the Peacemaker allegedly because of his “participation in acts of humanitarian aggression against Ukraine,” as well as for “disseminating Kremlin propaganda.” In addition, the fake message said that, in fact, “it’s because of wheat and apples.”
– Creating the illusion of a split in the EU between Poland and Germany, as well as France, into which Ukraine is being drawn. In particular, such a split was mentioned in fake Russian propaganda publications distributed on social media. As stated, Germany and France allegedly promised Ukraine quick accession to the EU if Kyiv helps “remove the Polish government.” At the same time, it turns out that Poland is the main opponent of Ukraine’s integration into the EU and a change in the Polish government “will help speed up accession.” The fact check showed that such publications are fake and have nothing to do with reality.
Thus, trying to weaken and destroy the unity of the West in supporting Ukraine and create conditions for freezing the Russian-Ukrainian war on its own terms, Russia continues to actively influence the international media landscape through fake stories and manipulative messages. The Polish aspect plays a key role here. Moscow is trying to informationally scale up any crisis or conflict situations between Poles and Ukrainians to create a destructive background in order to implement its geopolitical and military political goals.
It is obvious that Russia’s further stagnation at the front will require increasingly active hybrid actions against Ukraine and the West. Therefore, in the near future we can expect a further intensification of anti-Ukrainian and anti-Polish propaganda, the spread of lies, and other active destructive actions in the European and international media landscape.
At the same time, the upcoming changes in the Polish government may give a new impetus to Russia’s production of fake information structures to negatively influence the process of formation of new political configurations in Poland and the possible transformation of Ukrainian-Polish relations.
Author: Mykhailo Samus, Director, New Geopolitics Research Network
Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”
