Russian propaganda remains consistent in its strategy of broad coverage of international affairs while simultaneously using them to illustrate its overall target narratives. Each informational occasion or event is used as a brick in building Russian propaganda. The election in Poland in 2023 was no exception.
In the context of the Polish election, Russian propaganda developed two significant narratives. Firstly, this is the negative impact of democratic election on the long-term prospects of politics in general, harm to democracy, and the turnover of elections. Secondly, this is the inevitability of the cessation of support for Ukraine over time, which should, in turn, lead to Russia’s victory in the war.
Within the narrative about the election in Poland promoted by Russian propaganda, its impact on Ukraine is a fundamental component. The war forces Russian propaganda to return to the topic of Ukraine again and again in a variety of contexts. Naturally, Russian propagandists pay attention to positive scenarios for Moscow and opportunities to gain an advantage and win the war. One such scenario is the decline of international support for Ukraine, in particular from Poland. By setting its target audience in a positive mood and instilling confidence in victory, Russian propaganda is looking for signs of imminent victory and the implementation of positive scenarios for how the events unfold.
At the same time, Russian propaganda regularly elaborates on the regime’s general narratives, which relate not only to foreign but also to domestic policy. In this case, international news serves only as an illustration to show the appropriateness of the political structure of Russia, where the political stability of the regime makes it impossible for an abrupt collapse of any politics due to the election results. This narrative contrasts politically stable Russia with the supposedly weak and internally divided democracies of the West exhausted by the political struggle.
Under these conditions, continued support for Ukraine in the context of a change of power in Poland is presented by Russian propaganda as doubtful. The election, in terms of this approach, cannot promise anything good – it is either instability in foreign policy or further negative manifestations of the current policy. Thus, Russian propaganda, using the discussion of the election in Poland, promotes the idea of the negative nature of the elections and the change of power.
When considering the election, Russian propaganda focuses on the negative aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, declaring that Ukraine’s conflict with the Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc) party “goes deep into history.” Accordingly, taking this into account, relations between Kyiv and Warsaw should deteriorate greatly in the future. At the same time, the attention is focused on points that can unite representatives of different Polish parties in the context of a negative attitude towards Ukraine, such as conflicts of the past or grain export issues. When considering internal issues in Poland, the relations between parties and approaches to politics remain an essential part of the Russian propaganda narrative on Ukraine and the ways to defeat it.
Speaking about the election in Poland, Russian propaganda pays special attention to the “Confederation.” When describing its political approach regarding Ukraine, Russian media call it neutral and objective.
In the condition of a prolonged war of attrition, Russia, in particular, counts on the depletion of international support for Ukraine. Under such circumstances, the main hope of propaganda is not so much the victory of a certain “anti-Ukrainian party” in the election but rather chaos and uncertainty. Russian propaganda, engaged in negative advertisement of democratic election, in every possible way promotes the idea of the risks associated with it, such as the collapse of long-term politics and internal political struggle.
Given the impossibility of openly promoting its interests in Polish domestic politics, Russia hopes for the weakening of Poland due to its internal political struggle and the weakness of the future coalition government. The main expected result of such “weakness” for Russia should be weakening support for Ukraine and gaining additional chances to win the war. At the same time, within the propaganda narrative, it is the democratic election that should weaken the enemy and lead to victory over it. Thus, the Russian Federation must achieve a foreign policy victory through an ideological victory while demonstrating the advantage of a dictatorial regime over democracies using propaganda.
Author: Denys Moskalyk
Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”
