Over the last few days (June 24th-June 26th), the Russian propaganda apparatus has focused on explaining and informing citizens about the course of activities regarding “J. Prigozhin’s rebellion”. The focus on this issue caused the Russians to temporarily limit their activities related to Poland. However, the Russian disinformation apparatus is slowly returning to its “standard mode of operation”.
At present, the Russian infosphere mainly features material convincing citizens that the situation in the country is stabilised and that the person responsible for “overcoming the crisis” is the President of the Russian Federation, V. Putin. The Russians are convinced that J. Prigozhin’s actions were “a prank” – the negative effects of which were neutralised thanks to a calm assessment of the situation and moderate (not radical) steps taken by V. Putin. Right now, the story that paints S. Shoigu in a negative light is being ignored, and Putin is being praised instead. J. Prigozhin has been criticised moderately – the process of deconstructing his myth has been halted (perhaps only temporarily).
The Russian propaganda apparatus is gradually returning to its tasks regarding Poland. In this context, the Russians resumed efforts to create Poland as a state allegedly preparing to attack Belarus – strengthening activities in creating the West as a threat to peace in the region. At the same time, the Russians are posting “throw-ins” online suggesting that J. Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus will pose a “serious threat to Poland”.
We can presume that this is an announcement of activities in the scope of attempts to intimidate Polish society with the vision of an “imminent strike” by the so-called “Wagner Group” on Polish territory. This type of narrative will be aimed at convincing Poles that the support provided to Ukraine threatens our country’s citizens.
The collapse of the Prigozhin Rebellion does not mean a limitation of Russia’s disinformation activities concerning the so-called “Wagner Group”. In the coming days, fake news and manipulation regarding this given issue will continue to appear. We should expect that the Russians will use the “black legend” of a given structure to try to intimidate the West with the spectre of war, attacks, crisis or nuclear disaster (e.g., as a result of the alleged “Wagnerian raid” on nuclear weapons depots – for example, in Belarus). Such messages will be a form of pressure-building and attempts to intimidate Western societies.
Author: dr Michał Marek
Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”
